EU house prices rose 6.8% against incomes since 2015
The average house price-to-income ratio across the European Union stood 6.8% higher in 2025 than it did in 2015, according to Eurostat’s housing affordability publication of 9 November 2026. That ten-year increase tells only part of the story. The spread between member states is enormous, with Portugal posting a 60.8% rise while Romania saw prices fall 42.8% relative to household incomes over the same period.
For estate agents and foreign buyers weighing up where the value lies, the country-by-country divergence matters far more than the EU-wide average. Affordability has moved in opposite directions depending on where construction activity, income growth and mortgage lending have lined up, or failed to.
Portugal, the Netherlands and Hungary led the climb
Portugal recorded the sharpest deterioration in affordability over the decade, Eurostat figures show. The 60.8% increase in the house price-to-income ratio reflects a combination of strong international demand, coastal property investment and sluggish wage growth in parts of the country.
The Netherlands came second with a 34.3% rise. Persistent housing shortages in the Randstad, tight planning rules and sustained competition for limited stock pushed prices well ahead of household income growth. Hungary followed with a 26.5% increase, driven by Budapest’s rapid expansion and government housing schemes that put upward pressure on prices.
Czechia posted a 25.8% rise and Spain a 24.5% increase, with Spain’s figure marking a recovery from the sharp falls that followed the 2008 financial crisis. Ireland ranked eighth among the countries with rising ratios, recording an increase of about 13% over the ten years, according to Eurostat.
Romania, Finland and Bulgaria saw prices fall
At the other end of the distribution, Romania’s house price-to-income ratio dropped 42.8% between 2015 and 2025, the largest fall in the EU. The decline reflects faster income growth in Bucharest and other cities as wages converged toward western European levels, while construction activity kept housing supply relatively fluid.
Finland’s 25.2% drop points to a different set of forces. Prices in parts of the country outside the Helsinki region have remained flat or declined in nominal terms, even as household incomes continued to grow. An ageing population and outward migration from rural areas have left some housing markets with structural oversupply.
Bulgaria’s 16.2% fall sits somewhere between the two. Income growth has been solid in Sofia, and new apartment construction has kept pace with demand in the capital, preventing the price spirals seen in tighter markets elsewhere in the EU.
For buyers looking at these three countries, the falling ratios signal improving affordability on paper, but the reasons behind the numbers vary sharply. A market with rising incomes and stable prices behaves very differently from one where prices are stagnant because demand is weak.
| Country | Change in the price-to-income ratio, 2015 to 2025 |
|---|---|
| Portugal | up 60.8% |
| Netherlands | up 34.3% |
| Hungary | up 26.5% |
| Czechia | up 25.8% |
| Spain | up 24.5% |
| Ireland | up about 13% |
| Bulgaria | down 16.2% |
| Finland | down 25.2% |
| Romania | down 42.8% |
The 2007 and 2022 peaks, and what followed each
Eurostat’s standardised house price-to-income ratio, measured against its long-term average since 2000, peaked at 7.9% above that average in 2007, just before the financial crisis. It then fell sharply, reaching a trough of 6.4% below the average in 2014 as prices corrected across much of southern Europe and Ireland.
The ratio climbed again through the rest of the 2010s, hitting a second peak of 7.4% above the long-term average in 2022. That peak came as post-pandemic demand collided with supply-chain delays, labour shortages in construction and record-low interest rates.
The ratio fell in 2023 and 2024, then returned to just 0.03% above the long-term average in 2025, according to Eurostat. The recent decline reflects a combination of rising mortgage rates, slower price growth in several large markets and continued income growth as labour markets stayed tight.
The shape of the correction after 2022 differs from what happened after 2007. The earlier crash involved sharp nominal price falls in the countries hardest hit by the financial crisis. The more recent adjustment has been gentler in most markets, with prices flattening or rising more slowly rather than collapsing.
Ireland’s long-term picture and construction costs
Ireland is the eighth largest riser in the Eurostat set, with its ratio up about 13% since 2015, which puts it well behind Portugal and the Netherlands and roughly half the Spanish increase. A decade of constrained supply explains more of that than demand does: the ratio measures what buyers paid against what they earned, and it cannot see how few homes were finished in the years when the population grew fastest.
That is the pattern worth watching across the union. Where construction track record and population growth drift apart for long enough, the ratio climbs even when mortgage lending is cautious, and it takes years of completions to bring it back.
What a buyer should check before trusting the ratio
A price-to-income ratio is a national average, and nobody buys the national average. Before you treat one as a verdict on a market, work through the local version of the same question.
- Pull the asking prices for the exact postcode or commune, not the country, from a portal that shows sold as well as asking prices where the registry publishes them.
- Compare the local median income with the local median price over ten years, not five, because a five-year window on either side of 2022 flatters almost every market.
- Check what the transaction actually costs on top: notary, registration, transfer tax and, in France, the taxe foncière that follows the property afterwards.
- Look at the rental yield a local buyer could achieve, because that is the number an investor will compare against the mortgage rate you are being offered.
Two things this ratio does not capture, and both matter:
- the size and quality of the stock behind the price, because a ratio says nothing about whether you are buying 60 square metres or 140
- the households that were priced out of the market, which never appear in an average of the people who did buy
Neither is a reason to ignore the number. Both are reasons not to buy from it alone.
What to watch next in European housing markets
The direction of house price-to-income ratios over the next few years will depend on the path of mortgage rates, the speed at which construction catches up with demand in tight markets, and whether wage growth continues to outpace inflation. All three are uncertain.
Central banks across the EU have started cutting rates from the peaks of 2023, but the pace and scale of further cuts remain unclear. If borrowing costs fall significantly, affordability could improve even if prices stay flat or edge higher. If rates stay elevated, prices may need to adjust downward in markets where buyers are already stretched.
Construction activity is the other variable to watch. Several countries have planning reforms in progress, and the speed at which new supply comes to market will shape affordability more than any other single factor in the medium term. The countries where ratios have risen most sharply are generally those where supply has failed to keep pace with demand, and that imbalance does not resolve quickly.
For buyers weighing up where to look, the Eurostat figures offer a starting point, not a final answer. The country-level ratio tells you whether prices have pulled away from incomes over the past decade, but the decision to buy in any particular market depends on a longer list of factors that no single number can summarise.
Frequently asked questions about the ratio
What does a house price-to-income ratio of 6.8% above 2015 mean?
It means the average EU home now costs 6.8% more relative to household income than it did in 2015. The ratio is a comparison across time, not a price: it says nothing about the cash value of a property, only about how far prices have moved away from the incomes that have to carry them.
Why did Eurostat publish this and what is the standardised version?
Eurostat published the housing affordability analysis on 9 November 2026. The standardised ratio in Eurostat’s housing statistics compares the price-to-income ratio with its own long-term average since 2000, which is why it can show a market as expensive in absolute terms and still below its historical norm.
Which countries became least affordable since 2015?
Portugal, with an increase of 60.8%, then the Netherlands at 34.3%, Hungary at 26.5%, Czechia at 25.8% and Spain at 24.5%.
Does a falling ratio mean prices are dropping?
No. A ratio can fall because incomes rise faster than prices, because prices fall, or both. Romania, Finland and Bulgaria fell the most since 2015, and the reasons differ by country, so the ratio alone cannot tell you what happened in the local market.
