ING Research published its autumn read on the Dutch housing market on 29 September, and it describes a standoff rather than a turning point. There are more homes for sale than at any point in recent years, mortgage rates have climbed, and the bank still expects prices to rise over the next fifteen months. Its economists are blunt about why: the buying market is still too tight for broad price declines.
That combination is what matters if you advise Dutch sellers, first-time buyers or clients relocating from another country. The extra supply is real and measurable. The higher rates are real and measurable. What has not changed is the shortage underneath both, and that is why the Dutch housing market is loosening without really turning. Here is what the ING report says, and what it means when you sit across the table from a client.
Why the Supply of Dutch Homes Is Climbing Now
The clearest number in the report is the size of the for-sale stock. In five years the number of existing homes listed with NVM estate agents has more than doubled, from 18,000 to 37,000. Even in a record year for sales, more homes are coming onto the market than are being sold.
- Homes for sale with NVM agents: 18,000 five years ago, 37,000 today
- Rental homes sold last year: around 40,000, close to one in six of all existing sales
- Share of sellers aged 65 and over: more than 30 per cent in the second quarter, against 26 per cent in 2020
- Average time from listing to agreed sale: about 28 days
- Holiday homes sold last year: around 2,700, the highest in 15 years
The qualifier is that more is not many. Supply has doubled from a very low base and stays historically thin, so the homes that do come up still sell in roughly four weeks. That is the main reason ING still calls this market tight rather than balanced, and it is the reason the extra choice has not yet changed who holds the cards in a negotiation.
Investors and Older Owners Drive the New Supply
Where the extra supply comes from depends on where you look. In and around the cities it is landlords leaving. Tax changes have made rental housing harder to run at a profit, so investors sold roughly 40,000 rental homes last year, close to one in six of all existing homes sold. In the four largest cities the share is nearer one in three.
Outside the cities the driver is age. Over-65s sold more than 30 per cent of all owner-occupied homes in the second quarter of 2026, against 26 per cent in 2020, according to Kadaster. Holiday homes are coming to market more often too, with about 2,700 sold last year, the highest figure in 15 years. None of it looks like distress selling. It is a slow rebalancing, and it is why the property market looks fuller without feeling loose.
Mortgage Rates at 4.4 Percent Slow the Buying
The brake on demand is money. The average advertised rate for a 10-year fixed annuity mortgage with the National Mortgage Guarantee (NHG) now stands at 4.4 per cent, against 3.6 per cent a year earlier. For the same loan, buyers face net monthly costs around 6 per cent higher, and their maximum borrowing capacity has fallen with the rate.
Two forces push the other way. Wages are still growing at about 4.3 per cent a year on CBS figures, and starters increasingly bring their own savings and take municipal starter loans. That’s why higher mortgage rates have cooled demand without breaking it, and why ING still expects the average price to edge up rather than fall.
What Two Earlier Supply Waves Tell Agents
Rising supply on its own has not been enough to push Dutch prices down this century. It has happened only twice before, and in both episodes the outcome depended on what happened to demand rather than to supply.
| Period | What drove supply up | What happened to prices |
|---|---|---|
| 2000 to 2005 | Cooling economy and heavy completions of new-build homes | Prices kept rising, helped by looser lending rules |
| 2008 to 2013 | Financial crisis, recession and rising unemployment | Demand collapsed and prices fell about 20 per cent |
| 2026 onwards | Investors selling rentals and older owners downsizing | Prices still rising, with 2.5 per cent expected in 2026 |
The pattern is consistent. Supply rising into a market where demand holds up leaves prices roughly where they were, or higher. Supply rising into a market where demand collapses, as it did when lending standards tightened after 2008, is what turns a slow market into a falling one. ING’s base case is the first of those: demand is weakening, not collapsing, so prices keep drifting up, more slowly than the market has been used to.
For an agent, the practical lesson is to watch the demand signals rather than the listing count. A rising number of listings is a story about choice. Falling transactions, a lengthening time on market and a widening gap between asking and achieved prices are the story about price.
How Agents Should Advise Clients in This Market
The awkward part of this market is that both sides of the table can find a headline that suits them. A seller reads about rising supply and assumes prices are falling. A buyer reads about a shortage and assumes there is nothing to negotiate. Neither headline is wrong, and neither tells the whole story, so local evidence beats national mood every time.
- Show sellers the listing count and the average time to sell in their own town, not the national figure.
- Explain that a slower rate of growth is not a fall: prices are still expected to be higher at the end of this year than at the end of last.
- For buyers, put the 4.4 per cent rate and the higher monthly cost next to the maximum loan, because borrowing capacity decides more deals than asking prices do now.
- For landlords, model the tax position before pricing a sale, since rental housing is where the extra supply is concentrated.
- For foreign buyers, be clear that the market is still short of homes, and that the choice they see today is better than it was five years ago, not plentiful.
None of that is dramatic. It is the ordinary work of a slower market, and it is where the agent with the local numbers wins the mandate.
Why Dutch Prices Slow Without Actually Falling
ING’s central forecast is modest. It expects prices to finish 2026 around 2.5 per cent above the end of 2025, and to rise only 1 per cent across 2027. Local declines are possible in the meantime, and the bank says that risk grows as rates rise and affordability tightens.
So the honest summary for a client is this. Across European real estate there are plenty of markets where prices are genuinely falling, but the Netherlands is not one of them yet. Supply is up, demand is softer, and the direction of travel is slower growth rather than decline. An agent who can explain that difference, with the Dutch numbers behind it, is the one a client trusts on the next deal.
Questions Agents Ask About the Dutch Market
Are Dutch house prices falling?
Not nationally. ING Research expects the average price to end 2026 about 2.5 per cent higher than at the end of 2025, then to rise another 1 per cent in 2027. Local falls are possible where supply has grown fastest, but the bank does not expect a broad decline.
Why are so many Dutch homes for sale?
Three reasons, in different places. Investors are selling rental homes after tax changes, older owners are downsizing in rural areas, and holiday homes are being sold more often. In the cities landlords dominate the extra supply; outside them, age does.
What are Dutch mortgage rates right now?
The average advertised rate for a 10-year fixed annuity mortgage with NHG is 4.4 per cent, against 3.6 per cent a year earlier. The same loan costs about 6 per cent more per month, which cuts how much a buyer can borrow.
Will the extra supply push prices down in 2027?
Only if demand falls far enough. Supply has doubled from a low base and homes still sell in about 28 days. ING says broad price falls would need a real collapse in demand, and its base case is a slow rise instead.
What should I tell a foreign buyer about the Netherlands?
That the market is more balanced than it was, not easy. There is more choice than five years ago, but the shortage is unresolved and prices are still expected to climb. Set expectations on borrowing capacity first, because rates now decide more purchases than asking prices do.
